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| #699668 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 PM 03.Jul.2014) TCDAT1 HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014 The eye of Arthur is about to make landfall near Cape Lookout, North Carolina. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 94 kt and SFMR winds of 79 kt in the southeastern eyewall. The lowest reported central pressure was 976 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity was increased to 85 kt. Coastal radar data indicates a well-defined 20-25 n mi diameter eye is present, and the eye is also apparent in infrared satellite imagery. Arthur is accelerating toward the northeast due to the approach of a baroclinic trough over the northeastern United states, and the initial motion is now 035/16. A continued northeastward motion and acceleration are expected during the next 24-36 hours. The forecast track calls for the center to cross coastal North Carolina during the next several hours, pass southeast of New England in about 24 hours, and be near or over western Nova Scotia in about 36 hours. After that, the westerlies are expected to steer Arthur or its remnants across Newfoundland into the North Atlantic. The forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the center of the guidance envelope for the first 72 hours. Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 hours as the eye of the hurricane crosses coastal North Carolina and the adjacent northwestern Atlantic. After that, Arthur is expected to undergo extratropical transition, which is forecast to be complete by the time the cyclone reaches Nova Scotia. After passing Nova Scotia, a post-tropical Arthur should weaken rapidly over the North Atlantic. The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is available at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 34.6N 76.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 36.7N 74.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 40.0N 70.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 43.7N 66.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 06/0000Z 46.2N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/0000Z 51.5N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/0000Z 57.5N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0000Z 60.0N 35.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven |
