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| #699761 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:02 AM 04.Jul.2014) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 700 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014 ...WATER LEVELS REMAIN HIGH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.5N 74.7W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ENE OF KITTY HAWK NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF OCRACOKE INLET...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * OCRACOKE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY * WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND * NANTUCKET * CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE * ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND * ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NEW BRUNSWICK...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL MOVE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY...PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 973 MB...28.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREAS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN NEW ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...2 TO 4 FT EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...1 TO 3 FT COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD. THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND THE NEW EXPERIMENTAL POTENTIAL STORM SURGE FLOODING MAP FOR MORE DETAILS. A NOAA NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGE AT OREGON INLET RECENTLY INDICATED OVER 3 FEET OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION IN THE AREA. RAINFALL...RAINFALL WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING WITH STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES AND ISOLATED MAXIMUM OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS RHODE ISLAND...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND COASTAL MAINE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...900 AM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BRENNAN |
