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| #699800 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 04.Jul.2014) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ARTHUR ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014 ...CENTER OF ARTHUR EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD EARLY TONIGHT... ...ALL WARNINGS IN NORTH CAROLINA DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.7N 73.4W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ESE OF OCEAN CITY MARYLAND ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS REPLACED ALL REMAINING TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY * NANTUCKET * CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE * NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON...PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN VIRGINIA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN CANADA TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD TONIGHT. ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM EXTREME EASTERN RHODE ISLAND THROUGH EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND INTO COASTAL MAINE...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. THESE SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
