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| #699833 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:54 PM 04.Jul.2014) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 200 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014 ...ARTHUR PASSING WELL EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.5N 72.4W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NANTUCKET * CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE * NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND * NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF MAINE AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...41 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THIS AFTERNOON...PASS SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA EARLY ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.82 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN CANADA TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY. STORM SURGE...COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG CAPE COD TONIGHT. ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM EXTREME EASTERN RHODE ISLAND THROUGH EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND INTO COASTAL MAINE...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ARTHUR ARE AFFECTING AREAS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND NORTHEAST COASTS OF THE UNITED STATES. SWELLS WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TONIGHT. THESE SWELL ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. FOR MORE INFORMATION... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN |
