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| #7015 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 PM 01.Sep.2004) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST WED SEP 01 2004 ...FRANCES LASHING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...HEADING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IS IN EFFECT THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...55 KM...NORTH OF GRAND TURK ISLAND AND ABOUT 650 MILES...1050 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. FRANCES REMAINS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. REPORTS FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS INDICATE THAT GRAND TURK ISLAND HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING 60 TO 75 MPH...96 TO 120 KM/HR...WINDS DURING THE PAST HOUR AND SOME DAMAGE TO TREES AND ROOFS. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 938 MB...27.70 INCHES. THIS PRESSSURE WAS REPORTED AFTER THE FORECAST/ADVISORY PRODUCT WAS SENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...22.0 N... 71.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 938 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA |
