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| #7017 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:01 PM 01.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FLEW AGAIN IN THE EYE OF FRANCES AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 938 MB. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED BUT THE PLANE MEASURED 131 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 120 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. IF FACT...THE 1719Z RECON FIX REPORTED A DOUBLE EYEWALL SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER OF THESE PROCESSES IS TAKING PLACE. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. DATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON BOARD THE NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT WERE USED TO DECREASE THE WIND RADII ESTIMATES IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. BECAUSE THE NW WIND RADII ARE SMALLER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST CAN BE DELAYED A LITTLE. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOW FAR WEST THE HURRICANE WILL GO WILL DEPEND ON THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AND THAT VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE GFS AND THE GFDL CONSISTENTLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD EARLIER THAN ANY OTHER MODELS. BECAUSE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE VERY RELIABLE...I WAS TEMPTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE CONU CONSENSUS...WHICH CONSISTS OF THE AVERAGE OF THE GFDL...GFDN...GFS...NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS...BRING THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS FLORIDA. THEREFORE...I AM NOT READY TO MAKE THE NORTHWARD SHIFT AT THIS TIME AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 22.0N 71.0W 120 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 23.1N 73.0W 125 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 24.3N 74.9W 125 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 25.4N 76.7W 125 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 26.5N 78.5W 125 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 28.0N 80.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 06/1800Z 32.5N 84.5W 25 KT...INLAND |
