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| #704358 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 21.Jul.2014) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014 The compact depression has not changed much during the past several hours. The system is producing a small area of deep convection near the center and a few fragmented bands mainly on the south side of the circulation. An ASCAT pass around 0010 UTC captured the western half of the system and indicated that winds are light and variable to the south of the center, suggesting that the system has not become better defined. The dynamical models, both regional and global, are in good agreement in showing the system weakening into a trough by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles. The primary reasons for the weakening in these models appear to be dry air and possibly mid-level shear. The SHIPS and LGEM models show the cyclone gaining strength, but this scenario seems unlikely given the expected unfavorable environmental conditions. The official intensity forecast follows the trend in the dynamical model guidance, and is the same as the previous forecast. Satellite fixes suggest that depression has moved a little to the north of the previous track, and the latest initial motion estimate is 280/14. A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should keep it moving westward to west-northwestward during the next few days. This track takes the depression, or its remnants, over the Lesser Antilles in 2 to 3 days. The NHC track forecast is a little to the north of the previous one, primarily to account for the initial position, and lies fairly close to the multi-model consensus TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 12.0N 45.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 12.5N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 13.0N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 13.5N 52.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 14.5N 56.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 16.7N 63.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
