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| #704456 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 AM 22.Jul.2014) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 1100 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 The depression continues to produce deep convection in a band to the west and southwest of the center and the initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB. There is no change to the intensity forecast reasoning, as the cyclone will be moving through an environment of dry air and increasing shear that will not favor strengthening. The global models and the HWRF show the vortex weakening and opening up into a trough near the Lesser Antilles by 48 hours or shortly thereafter. The NHC forecast includes a 48-h point as a remnant low, but it would not be surprising if the system had already dissipated by that time. The initial motion estimate is 280/15, as the depression continues to be steered by a deep-layer ridge to the north. A quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through dissipation. The dynamical track model guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, and the new NHC track is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 12.6N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 12.9N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 13.3N 53.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 13.9N 56.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 14.8N 60.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
