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| #704624 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 23.Jul.2014) TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014 The small tropical depression has maintained an area of deep convection overnight. However, recent microwave imagery indicates that the convection is not particularly well organized. An AMSR2 image from 0435 UTC also shows that the circulation may be losing definition. The depression is currently passing just south of NOAA Buoy 41040 which has recently reported a peak one-minute wind of 27 kt and a minimum pressure of 1013.8 mb. Based on a TAFB Dvorak classification and the buoy observations, the initial wind speed remains 30 kt. The environment ahead of the depression is forecast to become even more hostile than it has been, due to increasing vertical shear and dry air. These conditions should cause the depression to weaken during the next day or so, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure within 48 hours. All of the dynamical models show the depression becoming an open trough before reaching the Lesser Antilles, and it is quite possible that the cyclone will dissipate sooner than shown below. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 17 kt. The depression or its remnants will continue moving west-northwestward to westward with some increase in forward speed during the next day or so. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is near the consensus of the ECMWF and GFS models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 13.9N 53.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.3N 56.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 14.9N 59.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 15.4N 64.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
