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| #707084 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 AM 02.Aug.2014) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 500 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014 Bertha is a disorganized tropical cyclone, but based on earlier reconnaissance aircraft data, it is still producing winds of 40 to 45 knots. Satellite data show that the low-level center is exposed with most of the showers and squalls to the north and east. San Juan Puerto Rico radar also shows the circulation associated with the cyclone. Another plane will be investigating Bertha in a few hours. The shear has not decreased, but global models insist on forecasting a little more conducive upper-level environment in 24 hours or so. If the cyclone survives the current shear, and the interaction with Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, it could strengthen slightly over the open Atlantic as indicated in the NHC forecast. In fact, this is the solution of the SHIPS and HWRF models. Bertha continues to be embedded within a strong easterly flow south of the subtropical ridge, and the cyclone is racing toward the west-northwest of 295 degrees at about 19 knots. However, in about 24 to 36 hours, Bertha will reach the southwestern edge of the ridge and will likely slow down a little. The cyclone will then move northward and northeastward over the Atlantic, steered by the southerly flow between the ridge and a trough over the eastern United States. This is the solution of most of the dynamical models which indeed are in pretty good agreement. The NHC forecast follows the multi-model consensus and is very similar to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 16.3N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 17.8N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 20.0N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 22.5N 72.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 25.0N 73.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 31.0N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 36.0N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 40.0N 58.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
