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| #707365 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 03.Aug.2014) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014 Visible satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern of Bertha is becoming a little better organized, with some banding features apparent over the eastern portion of the system. Also, reports from a hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the low-level circulation is becoming better defined. The current intensity estimate is held at 40 kt, in agreement with SFMR-observed surface winds from the aircraft well to the northeast of the estimated center. The initial motion estimate continues to be northwestward, or 320/18 kt. The track forecast and reasoning are mostly unchanged from the previous advisory. Over the next couple of days, Bertha should move around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone at a slightly slower forward speed. Thereafter, the tropical cyclone is likely to turn northeastward and east-northeastward while accelerating as it moves into the mid-latitude westerlies. The current official forecast is fairly close to the latest multi-model consensus. Cirrus motions and animation of water vapor imagery show that the shear over Bertha has begun to relax a little, and this, along with an increase in mid-level moisture, should allow for some strengthening. In the latter part of the forecast period, west-southwesterly shear increases significantly, but by that time it is anticipated that Bertha will have become an extratropical storm over the North Atlantic. The official wind speed forecast is the same as in the previous advisory, and quite similar to the latest intensity model consensus, ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 22.2N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 24.3N 73.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 27.4N 74.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 30.7N 73.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 33.7N 71.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 06/1200Z 39.5N 64.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 44.0N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/1200Z 47.5N 43.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
