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| #707437 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 03.Aug.2014) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014 After Bertha's cloud pattern became a little better organized earlier today, there has been little change in its overall appearance over the past several hours. There are limited banding features over the eastern semicircle of the circulation, and the deep convection is a little ragged-looking. The upper-level outflow is becoming a little better defined, but there is still some northwesterly shear over the system. The current intensity is kept at 40 kt based on earlier observations from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft. The numerical guidance has become a little less bullish on future strengthening, but the Decay-SHIPS model still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane in 60-72 hours, as does the official forecast. It should be noted, however, that the intensity model consensus no longer predicts Bertha to become a hurricane. Based on an earlier center fix from the aircraft, the working best track has been adjusted a little to the east of the previous estimates. The center location is not obvious on the latest visible imagery, and the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 325/16 kt. The track forecast for the next 48 hours or so is slightly complicated by a low- to mid-level disturbance that is currently near Florida. The U.K. Met. Office global model forecast shows Bertha interacting with this disturbance and moving a little closer to the United States east coast than earlier runs. Other global models such as the GFS do not show as much interaction and keep Bertha farther offshore. The new official track forecast has been nudged a little to the left of the previous one and is very close to a consensus of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 23.3N 73.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 25.8N 73.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 29.0N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 32.6N 73.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 35.7N 71.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 40.5N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 46.0N 53.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/1800Z 50.0N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch |
