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| #707954 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 05.Aug.2014) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 PM AST TUE AUG 05 2014 Bertha briefly became devoid of thunderstorm activity late this afternoon, however a new burst of deep convection has developed to the northeast of the center this evening. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt and is based on a Dvorak classification of T3.0 from TAFB. The vertical shear over Bertha has increased to more than 40 kt and is expected to increase even further by Wednesday. Despite the shear, little overall change in strength is predicted during the next 24 hours since Bertha will transform into an extratropical low and gain some energy from baroclinic processes during that time. The latest fixes indicate that Bertha has turned northeastward with a motion of 045/20 kt. The cyclone should continue northeastward during the next 48 hours ahead of a mid-latitude trough that is moving off the northeast United States coast. Later in the forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone is predicted to move east-northeastward to eastward in mid-latitude westerly flow over the North Atlantic. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 37.5N 68.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 39.5N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 42.2N 58.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/1200Z 45.0N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/0000Z 47.3N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/0000Z 48.5N 33.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0000Z 48.5N 17.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Brown |
