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| #713084 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 26.Aug.2014) TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 As indicated by my predecessor, Cristobal's cloud pattern is not typical of a hurricane on IR images. The convection is quite linear and the system appears to be embedded within the tail of a frontal zone. However, an reconnaissance planes recently measured winds of 73 kt at flight level and a minimum central pressure of 987 mb. This supports an initial intensity of 65 knots. Most of the global models intensify the cyclone, and given that the shear is gradually decreasing, the NHC forecast calls for some strengthening at a rate very close to the latest intensity consensus model ICON. By day 4, Cristobal is expected to be over cooler waters losing tropical characteristics. Cristobal has been meandering during the past 12 hours or more, but recently, it has begun to move toward the north at about 10 knots. The cyclone is located at the base of a narrow mid-latitude trough, and squeezed between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and a high pressure over the United States. Most of the global models show that the flow around the western side of the Atlantic ridge will steer the cyclone northward for the next 36 hours or so. Cristobal will then encounter the mid-latitude westerlies and turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. The guidance in general shifted slightly to the west in the latest run due to a small expansion of the Atlantic ridge. The NHC track forecast was also adjusted slightly westward during the next 24 to 36 hours, following the multi-model consensus, and placed very close to the consensus between the EMCWF and the GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 26.0N 71.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 28.1N 71.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 30.6N 71.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 32.6N 70.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 35.0N 68.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 41.0N 55.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 48.0N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/0600Z 57.0N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila |
