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| #713294 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 27.Aug.2014) TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 The cloud pattern has changed from 12 hours ago when there was deep and symmetric convection near the center. Currently, the satellite presentation resembles a subtropical cyclone with weak convection which is not concentrated near the center. However, an Air Force plane recently penetrated Cristobal and found a minimum pressure of 983 mb and a partial eyewall. The strong winds of 75 to 80 kt measured by the plane at flight level were not observed at the surface during this time. Given such uncertainty, the initial intensity has been kept at 70 kt at this time. The hurricane has a small window of opportunity for strengthening before it moves to higher latitudes and over cooler waters in a couple of days. The NHC wind speed forecast is close to the latest intensity model consensus and similar to the previous official one. After that time, Cristobal is forecast to become a strong post-tropical storm with hurricane-force winds over the north Atlantic later this week. Aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that Cristobal slowed down earlier this morning, but as anticipated, it has resumed a northward motion or 010 degrees at 10 knots. The steering pattern has not changed and Cristobal should begin to move toward the northeast in about 24 hours with an increase in forward speed as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus and similar to the GFS ensemble mean AEMI, which has been performing quite well with this storm so far. The forecast beyond 72 hours follows the input from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 30.9N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 32.4N 71.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 34.7N 69.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 37.5N 63.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 40.5N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 48.0N 43.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/0600Z 53.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Avila |
