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| #713399 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 PM 27.Aug.2014) TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 Deep convection continues to be confined mostly near and to the west of the center of Cristobal, with dry air persisting in the eastern semicircle. After rising a bit earlier this afternoon, the central pressure has fallen back down to 984 mb. The initial intensity of 65 kt is based on several 60-65 kt SFMR winds from the hurricane hunter aircraft. The intensity forecast shows gradual intensification to 75 kt in 36 to 48 hours, as Cristobal will have the opportunity to intensify as a tropical cyclone and then via baroclinic processes during extratropical transition. Global model fields show Cristobal deepening during transition and acquiring a warm seclusion structure in 48 to 72 hours. Slow decay is expected after 72 hours before the cyclone is absorbed at high latitudes. Cristobal has begun moving north-northeastward, with an initial motion estimate of 030/13. The cyclone should continue to accelerate around the subtropical ridge into the mid-latitude westerlies tonight and remain on a general northeastward heading through 72 hours before bending northward. The track model guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track is close to the previous forecast and the middle of the guidance envelope. The extratropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 32.7N 71.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 34.4N 69.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 37.3N 63.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 29/0600Z 41.0N 55.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/1800Z 45.3N 47.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 30/1800Z 53.5N 34.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/1800Z 60.0N 27.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Brennan |
