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| #713622 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 28.Aug.2014) TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014 The satellite presentation of Cristobal looked its best in visible imagery shortly after the release of the previous advisory, when the eye became more apparent. Since that time, the eye has become a little more ragged, but a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates yields an initial wind speed of 70 kt. Although the official forecast does not explicitly show any additional intensification, there is a small window of opportunity this evening for the hurricane to get a little stronger. After that time, Cristobal will be moving across the north wall of the Gulf Stream -- and over much colder waters. An upper-level trough and cold front approaching the cyclone from the northwest should cause Cristobal to transform into an extratropical cyclone on Friday. The extratropical cyclone is expected to continue to produce hurricane-force winds during the next couple of days before it merges with another large extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic in about 3 days. The hurricane continues to accelerate, and is now moving east-northeastward at 31 kt. The cyclone should continue to accelerate tonight and remain on an east-northeastward to northeastward heading during the next 2 to 3 days. The updated NHC track is in good agreement with the tightly clustered guidance, but the forecast has been adjusted slightly to the right due to a more eastward 1800 UTC initial position. The track, intensity and wind radii forecasts of the extratropical low have been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 38.5N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 41.0N 54.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 45.2N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/0600Z 49.3N 38.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/1800Z 54.0N 31.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/1800Z 62.0N 23.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Brown |
