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| #713680 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 PM 28.Aug.2014) TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014 Remarkably, Cristobal still has a well-organized appearance on satellite imagery with a central dense overcast and some banding features. The current intensity estimate is increased to 75 kt in agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The hurricane will soon encounter much cooler waters, which would cause significant weakening as a tropical cyclone. However, it is expected that the cyclone will be able to maintain at least some of its strength due to baroclinic forcing. Post-tropical Cristobal will likely remain a powerful, albeit extratropical, cyclone over the north Atlantic through Saturday. Beyond that time, the system is forecast to merge with another low near southern Greenland and lose its identity. The hurricane has continued to accelerate, and the motion is now near 065/40 kt as Cristobal moves within the mid-latitude westerlies. Dynamical track guidance indicates a slight turn toward the northeast as the tropical or post-tropical cyclone interacts with the low near southern Greenland in the next day or two. The official track forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF model solutions. The wind radii were adjusted based on data from a recent ASCAT overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 40.2N 56.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 43.1N 49.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 47.5N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/1200Z 51.5N 34.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0000Z 56.5N 27.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/0000Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER CYCLONE $$ Forecaster Pasch |
