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| #714651 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:45 PM 01.Sep.2014) TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014 The depression appears to be gradually organizing this evening as deep convection has developed over the eastern portion of the large circulation. Last-light visible satellite pictures suggested that the center of the depression has likely reformed farther north, which is not surprising given that the depression is still in its formative stage. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression in a few hours, and this should assist in determining the center position overnight. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial wind speed of 25 kt. Although the depression is forecast to strengthen some on Tuesday, moderate northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air are likely to inhibit significant intensification before landfall. None of the reliable intensity models show much strengthening and the NHC forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory. The somewhat uncertain initial motion is 310/9 kt. The dynamical model guidance indicate that the depression will turn west- northwestward on Tuesday to the south of a mid-level ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. The guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track is close to the middle of the guidance envelope. The updated NHC forecast track is slightly north of the previous advisory due to the more northward initial position. Once inland, the cyclone is forecast to quickly dissipate over the mountains of eastern Mexico. The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which is likely to cause flash-flooding and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 21.0N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 21.7N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 22.3N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 22.7N 98.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
