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| #714859 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 PM 02.Sep.2014) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 400 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 Tracking the center of Dolly this afternoon has been, to say the least, challenging. Aircraft and scatterometer wind data show that the center of the storm reformed to the south of the previous track and nearer to the middle of the deep convection. Flight-level and SFMR observations support an initial intensity of about 40 kt. Since the center is expected to move inland in less than 12 hours, no significant change in strength is likely before landfall. Once inland, Dolly should weaken fairly rapidly over the mountains of northeastern Mexico and the system could dissipate even sooner than indicated by the NHC forecast. With the center relocation, it is extremely difficult to estimate the initial motion, but my best guess is 270/10 kt. Despite the complex small-scale motions, the large-scale steering pattern remains roughly the same. A mid-tropospheric ridge near the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coast should drive Dolly in a generally westward direction over the next day or two. The official track forecast has been shifted southward due to the center reformation. This lies about in the middle of the track guidance model suite. The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will continue even after the center moves inland. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 22.0N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 22.0N 98.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 03/1800Z 22.0N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
