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| #7163 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:14 PM 02.Sep.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004 METEOSAT-8 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED PERSISTENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS...28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ALTHOUGH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR MAY AFFECT THE SYSTEM ON DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND REMAIN NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...A CONSISTENT FORWARD SPEED OF 15 TO 17 KNOTS IS FORECAST. FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 9.7N 29.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 9.7N 31.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 10.0N 35.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 10.3N 38.2W 45 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 10.8N 41.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 12.0N 48.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 06/1800Z 12.9N 54.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 07/1800Z 14.0N 60.0W 70 KT |
