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| #716981 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 12.Sep.2014) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2014 Edouard is feeling the effects of moderate vertical wind shear as the center is on the southwest edge of the deep convection. The current intensity values from both SAB and TAFB suggest that the cyclone remains a low-end tropical storm and its intensity is kept at 35 kt. While Edouard will be traversing progressively warmer waters during the next three to four days, it may only gradually intensify due to the inhibiting effects of about 15 kt of deep layer shear and dry lower-tropospheric air. Indeed, dropsondes launched by the unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft this evening showed very dry conditions just to the southwest of Edouard. The official intensity forecast, based upon a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical models and the HWRF dynamical model, is just slightly below the prediction from the previous advisory. Microwave passes by the TRMM and SSMI low-earth orbiting satellites assisted substantially in determining the initial position and current motion, indicating that Edouard was a bit farther west than estimated earlier. The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at a faster rate of about 13 kt. Edouard should gradually turn toward to the north by the end of the forecast period, as it moves around the periphery of a deep-layer ridge to its north and through a weakness in the ridge. The official track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered TVCA multi-model consensus and is slightly west of the previous track prediction because of the more westerly initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 17.6N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 18.6N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 19.7N 45.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 20.7N 47.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 22.0N 49.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 24.8N 53.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 27.5N 55.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 31.0N 55.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea |
