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| #717237 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:01 AM 13.Sep.2014) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST SAT SEP 13 2014 Edouard is gradually intensifying as a prominent curved band winds most of the way around the tropical storm. However, the convective cloud tops are warming and the central dense overcast is a bit skeletal. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB as well as the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique have increased and all indicate maximum winds of around 45 kt, which is the initial intensity. Edouard is still being affected by 15-20 kt of vertical shear, primarily being induced the southwesterly flow around a very large tropical upper-tropospheric trough to its west. As Edouard moves poleward of the trough axis within the next day or so, the shear will diminish. As the waters the system will traverse are a quite warm 29C, only the somewhat dry atmosphere will not be conducive for a more rapid intensification. Edouard is expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days. After recurvature in three to four days, the storm motion and shear vectors are likely to align which should allow Edouard to maintain its intensity through day 5. The NHC wind speed forecast is nearly the same as that in the previous advisory and is based upon a blend of the LGEM statistical model and the GFDL and HWRF dynamical models. A GCOM/AMSR2 microwave pass helped to locate the center of Edouard and also indicated that the system was tilted northward with height because of the vertical shear. Edouard is moving toward the west- northwest around 13 kt, under the influence of a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic. In about 3 to 4 days, the cyclone will respond to a break in the ridge by recurving and then accelerating toward the northeast. The track guidance is tightly clustered through the whole forecast period. The NHC track forecast is based upon the TVCA multi-model ensemble and is just to the east of the previous track prediction through 48 hours and just west thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 20.7N 46.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 21.7N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 23.1N 49.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 24.7N 51.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 26.1N 54.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 29.5N 57.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 33.5N 56.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 38.5N 50.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea |
