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| #717286 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 13.Sep.2014) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST SAT SEP 13 2014 Although Edouard has lost most of the deep convection, it has a vigorous low-level circulation. Dvorak t-numbers still support an initial intensity of 45 kt. There are some arc clouds currently moving away from the main circulation suggesting that no important changes in intensity are expected during the next few hours. However, the shear is decreasing and this is already reflected in the current better defined upper-level outflow. The low shear, in combination with the pool of anomalous warm waters ahead of Edouard, should result in strengthening, and the cyclone should become a hurricane on Sunday or early Monday. The NHC forecast follows the guidance and is very close to the intensity consensus ICON. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 11 kt. The steering environment has not changed, with the cyclone's motion being controlled by the subtropical ridge. This pattern will keep Edouard on the same general track for the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, the subtropical ridge will weaken and move east allowing Edouard to turn north, and then recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is close to the multi-model consensus TVCA, which has been very consistent in turning the cyclone northward over the Central Atlantic for the past several model cycles. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 21.7N 46.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 22.7N 48.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 24.2N 50.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 25.7N 52.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 27.1N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 30.5N 57.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 35.0N 55.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 40.0N 47.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
