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| #717359 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 PM 13.Sep.2014) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST SAT SEP 13 2014 Convection associated with Edouard has blossomed this afternoon. The cloud pattern has become more symmetric, and the outflow is fair toward the northwest. The initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The low shear, in combination with a pool of anomalously warm waters ahead of Edouard, should result in strengthening, and the NHC forecast calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane on Sunday or early on Monday. The intensity forecast is very close to the consensus ICON. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone's motion is being controlled by the subtropical ridge to its north. It appears that this ridge is a little stronger, and that pattern supports keeping Edouard on a west-northwestward to northwestward course for the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, the subtropical ridge will weaken and move eastward, allowing Edouard to turn north and then recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is close to the multi- model consensus TVCA, which has been very consistent in turning the cyclone northward over the central Atlantic for the past several model cycles. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 22.5N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 23.7N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 25.0N 51.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 26.4N 53.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 27.6N 55.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 31.0N 57.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 36.0N 54.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 42.0N 45.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
