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| #717431 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 13.Sep.2014) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST SAT SEP 13 2014 The compact inner-core of Edouard has become a little more organized during the evening. A low- to mid-level eye-like feature has intermittently appeared in microwave imagery, however, a 2206 GMI image suggests that the low-level center remains displaced slightly to the south of the mid-level center. The intensity has been increased to 55 kt, based on the Dvorak classification from TAFB and a timely 2354 UTC ASCAT-B pass that showed believable wind vectors of 49-51 kt. Upper-level outflow has expanded to the west, and to a lesser degree, the south, indicative of decreasing vertical wind shear. Intensification is expected due to a more conducive environment, with the only obvious impediment being some marginally dry air, primarily to the south and east of Edouard. The intensity guidance, particularly DSHP, is forecasting a higher peak intensity this cycle. The intensity forecast has been increased slightly for the first 96 hours of the forecast and remains very close to the consensus aid IVCN. By day 5, Edouard will be well embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, and weakening is expected while extratropical transition occurs. Edouard continues to move steadily toward the northwest and the estimated initial motion is 305/12. There has been remarkable run-to-run consistency in the track guidance for the past 4 cycles. Edouard is still expected to move on a general northwestward track for the next couple of days before reaching a weakness in the subtropical ridge and recurving. The NHC forecast has not been changed substantially and remains very close to the multi-model consensus TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 23.4N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 24.5N 50.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 25.9N 52.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 27.2N 54.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 28.6N 56.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 32.2N 57.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 38.0N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 42.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Beven |
