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| #717491 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:11 AM 14.Sep.2014) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2014 Edouard continues to gradually intensify, as a tightly curved band has wrapped around the cyclone's center. Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB are a 4.0, or 65 kt, while the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique is substantially lower. The current intensity of Edouard is assessed as a high-end tropical storm at 60 kt, but the system may already be a hurricane given the uncertainties. The vertical shear - primarily induced by a large tropical upper tropospheric trough to its west-southwest - has begun to relax, now that Edouard has moved poleward of the trough axis. Vertical shear predicted by the global models should further weaken to less than 10 kt from 24 through 72 hours. This along with quite warm 29C waters is likely to lead to continued intensification through three days. The new NHC forecast peaks Edouard's intensity at 95 kt (slightly higher than that in the previous advisory), based upon a blend of the SHIPS statistical model and HWRF dynamical model. While the vertical shear picks up significantly between days 3 and 4 as Edouard recurves into the mid-latitude westerlies, the storm motion and shear vectors are likely to align which would allow Edouard to maintain its intensity through day 4. By day 5, cold waters and very strong vertical shear are anticipated to cause substantial weakening. Both the FSU Cyclone Phase Space analysis and the SHIPS storm type indicate Edouard will transition to an extratropical cyclone by day 5. The improved organization of the deep convection as seen in the infrared imagery as well as a couple of microwave passes allow for a fairly confident assessment of the current position. Edouard is moving toward the northwest at about 12 kt, primarily due to the steering induced by a mid-level ridge to its northwest. Edouard will round the western periphery of the ridge and recurve toward the northeast about 3 days. The NHC track prediction is based upon the tightly clustered multi-model TVCA track ensemble and is slightly west of that shown in the previous advisory through 72 hours and slightly east thereafter. The tropical-storm-force wind radii of Edouard was based upon an earlier ASCAT pass, which indicated a substantially larger size than that previously analyzed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 24.0N 49.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 25.0N 51.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 26.2N 54.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 27.5N 55.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 28.9N 57.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 33.0N 56.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 38.5N 50.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 42.0N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Landsea |
