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| #717677 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:10 PM 14.Sep.2014) TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014 Edouard's cloud pattern has not changed much in organization this evening. Although the eye had become better defined and warmer, it has recently disappeared. Convective cloud top temperatures in the central dense overcast have also warmed during the past several hours. There is some evidence that dry air may be wrapping into portions of the inner core of the hurricane. Dvorak intensity estimates were a consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity estimate is held at 75 kt. The environment ahead of Edouard is likely to become more conducive for intensification during the next day or two. While traversing warm waters, the shear is forecast to reach a minimum in 36-48 hours. The only inhibiting factor would seem to be dry environmental air wrapping around the circulation. After achieving a peak intensity near the point of recurvature, gradual weakening is likely to commence while the hurricane moves toward decreasing sea surface temperatures. A considerable increase in southwesterly shear and dramatically cooler waters should hasten the weakening trend beyond 72 hours. Edouard's interaction with a shortwave trough moving across Atlantic Canada in 4-5 days should lead to the beginning of extratropical transition at that time, but the guidance is not clear cut on a completion of this process by day 5. The intensity forecast is near or just above the multi-model consensus through 72 hours and near or a little below it at the end of the forecast period. The initial motion estimate is 305/13 kt. Edouard should continue on a northwestward heading on the south side of subtropical ridge until the ridge retreats eastward in a day or so. This change in the steering pattern should result in Edouard's turning sharply northward in about 36 hours. The hurricane should then be captured by a strong mid-latitude westerly flow and accelerate northeastward in 3-4 days, and turn generally eastward with a decrease in forward speed by day 5. The track guidance has shifted significantly to the left this cycle, and the official forecast track has been moved in that direction. The new track forecast, however, lies on the far right side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 26.2N 53.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 27.2N 54.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 28.6N 56.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 30.2N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 32.4N 56.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 37.4N 51.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 41.2N 42.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 20/0000Z 41.2N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Kimberlain |
