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| #717949 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 16.Sep.2014) TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 Convective cloud tops within Edouard's eyewall have occasionally been as cold as about -75C, but the eye has actually cooled during the past few hours. In addition, an 0614 UTC TRMM pass showed that the hurricane's eyewall is partially open on the north side. The Dvorak final-T estimate from TAFB increased to T5.5/102 kt but decreased to T4.5/77 kt from SAB, while the CIMSS ADT is holding steady near T5.6/105 kt. Due to the discrepancy between the various estimates, the initial intensity is being held at 95 kt. Analyses from UW-CIMSS and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that about 15 kt of southeasterly shear continues to affect Edouard. The shear is expected to decrease between 12-36 hours, and since waters will be warmer than 26C during that period, the hurricane still has a chance to strengthen a bit. The intensity guidance has decreased, with none of the usual hurricane models explicitly showing Edouard reaching major hurricane strength. However, given the improving environment, the NHC intensity forecast still allows for the possibility of a major hurricane in the next 12-24 hours. After that time, Edouard is expected to weaken quickly due to colder water and increasing vertical shear. The forecast continues to show Edouard becoming post-tropical by day 4, but the cyclone may begin to struggle to maintain organized deep convection as early as day 3 while it's over 22C water. The initial motion is north-northwestward, or 340/11 kt. Edouard is located to the west of a mid-tropospheric high and will turn northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24-36 hours. An eastward acceleration is expected by 48 hours, but then the cyclone is forecast to turn southeastward and slow down on days 4 and 5 when it approaches the west side of a deep-layer low between Portugal and the Azores. The track guidance continues to be tightly clustered, and the updated NHC forecast has only been nudged slightly westward during the first 48 hours to be closer to the multi-model consensus TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 30.2N 57.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 31.7N 57.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 34.3N 56.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 37.1N 52.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 39.5N 48.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 41.3N 39.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 40.5N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 21/0600Z 38.5N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg |
