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| #718081 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:11 PM 16.Sep.2014) TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 Microwave and NOAA Hurricane Hunter radar data suggest that Edouard has begun an eyewall cycle, with a pair of concentric rings seen in a 1605 UTC GCOM microwave image. The last few passes from the aircraft had a maximum flight-level wind of 93 kt, with 85 kt from the SFMR observed a few hours ago. These data suggest an initial wind speed of 90 kt for this advisory. Since the hurricane has less than 24 hours over warm water, it is not expected to complete its eyewall cycle, and will probably slowly weaken. After that time, Edouard should continue to lose strength when it moves over much cooler water and into higher shear. The NHC forecast is lower than the previous one, below most of the guidance for the first day in consideration of the current structure, then is blended with the intensity consensus after that time. The cyclone is expected to become post-tropical in the day 3 or 4 time frame, and become extratropical by day 5 since most of the global models show it developing frontal features by that time. Edouard has turned toward the north and is moving a little faster at about 13 kt. The hurricane will move northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24-36 hours while it moves on the northwest side of the subtropical high. An eastward acceleration is expected by 48 hours, and the cyclone is still forecast to turn southeastward and slow down on days 4 and 5 when it moves around a trough over the eastern Atlantic. Model guidance is in much better agreement than the last cycle and the official forecast is very close to the previous one, near the model consensus and the ECMWF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 32.3N 57.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 34.3N 56.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 37.2N 52.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 39.7N 47.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 40.9N 42.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 40.2N 37.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 39.4N 34.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 21/1800Z 36.0N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake |
