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| #718318 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 17.Sep.2014) TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014 An earlier NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft research mission showed a maximum 700 mb flight-level wind of 91 kt, with peak SFMR winds of 71 kt. Since the plane left a few hours ago, the satellite appearance of Edouard has become less organized, with warming convection in the eyewall and a cooling eye. The initial intensity is set to 75 kt for this advisory, a blend of the SFMR data and the higher satellite classifications. A combination of cooling waters and increasing shear should keep Edouard on a general weakening trend throughout the 120-hour period. Post-tropical transition is indicated in the latest NHC forecast at 48 hours due to Edouard moving over cold waters with strong shear. The cyclone is expected to dissipate by day 5, which is in good agreement with almost all of the global models. Edouard is moving faster to the northeast, now 055/23. A gradual turn to the east is expected, along with some decrease in forward speed by late tomorrow, due to Edouard moving becoming more steered by the subtropical ridge rather than faster mid-latitude westerlies. Edouard (or its remnants) should turn southeastward in a few days while it moves around a large trough over the eastern Atlantic. Although the general synoptic pattern has not changed, the track guidance has taken a notable eastward shift in this cycle, apparently due to the weaker low-level circulation decoupling from the mid-level northerly flow. Consequently, the latest forecast is shifted quite a bit to the east at day 4, although there probably won't be much of Edouard by that point. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 37.8N 51.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 39.4N 47.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 40.4N 42.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 40.2N 39.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 40.0N 38.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 20/1800Z 40.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 21/1800Z 38.0N 31.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
