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| #718385 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 17.Sep.2014) TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014 Edouard is maintaining its strength this evening despite being over cool waters. Satellite pictures indicate that deep convection in the inner-core region has increased a little during the past few hours, and microwave images continue to show concentric eyewalls. The initial intensity is held at 75 kt, which is in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Although the hurricane has not yet weakened, very cold water along the expected track along with a substantial increase in westerly shear should cause a steady weakening during the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies in the middle of the guidance envelope. Post-tropical transition is expected to occur in 36 to 48 hours, when Edouard is forecast to be over waters around 23 C. The hurricane is racing to the east-northeast in the strong mid-latitude flow across the central Atlantic, with the initial motion estimated to be 060/26. A turn to the east and then southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days when the cyclone is steered by the weaker flow between a subtropical ridge to its southwest and a deep-layer low to its northeast. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecast during the post-tropical phase is close to the guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 38.7N 48.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 39.8N 44.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 40.2N 40.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 40.1N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 40.0N 36.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 21/0000Z 39.4N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 22/0000Z 37.0N 29.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
