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| #718438 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:06 AM 18.Sep.2014) TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014 An 0426 UTC GCOM microwave pass showed that Edouard has a small, solid inner eyewall surrounded by a thinning outer ring of deep convection. The infrared satellite presentation has not changed appreciably from 6 hours ago, and the initial intensity is held at 75 kt based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Edouard is over 24C water, but there is still some atmospheric instability available for the hurricane to maintain its convective structure. However, the SHIPS guidance shows the instability decreasing and westerly vertical shear increasing over 30 kt during the next 24 hours, so Edouard is expected to begin a faster weakening trend later today. The hostile conditions should cause Edouard to lose all of its deep convection in 36-48 hours, and the official forecast still calls for the system to be a post-tropical low in 48 hours and dissipate by day 5. The NHC forecast is just an update of the previous one and closely follows the ICON intensity consensus. The hurricane appears to be slowing down just a little bit and has an initial motion of 065/24 kt. Edouard is moving around the northern side of a mid-tropospheric high located over the central Atlantic, and it is forecast to turn eastward and then southeastward around this feature during the next 3 days. Most of the track models are in good agreement on this scenario. The two main outliers are the UKMET, which shows a sharper southward turn after 12 hours, and the GFDL, which shows Edouard continuing to race northeastward ahead of a cold front. The updated NHC track forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models and is a little south and west of the previous forecast after 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 39.6N 45.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 40.1N 41.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 39.9N 38.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 39.7N 37.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 39.7N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 21/0600Z 38.5N 31.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 22/0600Z 35.0N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg |
