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| #718559 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 PM 18.Sep.2014) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014 Over the past 6 hours, visible and microwave satellite imagery indicate that the upper-level and low-level circulations have started to decouple due to strong westerly vertical wind shear, with the upper-level center having become displaced more than 60 nmi east of the low-level center. The initial motion of 090/14 kt is based mainly on microwave fixes. Edouard is forecast to move around the northern and eastern periphery of the Bermuda-Azores ridge located along 30N-32N latitude. The models are in excellent agreement on the cyclone moving eastward for the next 48 hours, followed by a turn to the southeast on Day 3 and to the south on Day 4. The new NHC forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track, and basically lies in the middle of the guidance envelope. Edouard is forecast to remain over sub-24C SSTs and encounter increasing westerly shear of near 35 kt in 12-24 hours. The combination of these adverse conditions is expected to result in the rapid demise of Edouard, with the system becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 24 hours, if not sooner. The global models continue to show the circulation of Edouard dissipating by Day 5 as it interacts with and perhaps becomes absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone. The new NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous advisory and closely follows a blend of the LGEM and Decay-SHIPS models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 39.9N 41.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 39.9N 39.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 39.8N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 20/0600Z 39.8N 35.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 20/1800Z 39.8N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 21/1800Z 37.0N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/1800Z 32.5N 31.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart |
