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| #718637 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:51 PM 18.Sep.2014) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014 Edouard has not changed much during the past several hours. Microwave images indicate that the low-level center is located on the western side of the main area of deep convection due to about 30 kt of westerly shear. Despite being in a strong shear environment and over cool waters, an ASCAT pass just before 0000 UTC indicated that Edouard has not weakened significantly. Maximum reliable winds seen in the ASCAT data are in the 55 to 60 kt range, and dropsonde wind reports from the NASA Global Hawk suggest a similar intensity. Therefore, the initial wind speed is held at 60 kt for this advisory. The storm is expected to remain in hostile conditions, therefore, steady weakening is anticipated and Edouard is forecast to become post-tropical in about 24 hours. The global models show the post-tropical cyclone degenerating into a trough by 96 hours, and this is reflected in the official forecast. Satellite fixes suggest that Edouard is moving eastward at about 15 kt on the north side of a subtropical high. A continued eastward motion with a decrease in forward speed is predicted for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the southeast when the cyclone becomes embedded in the flow between the subtropical high and a deep layer low over the northeast Atlantic Ocean. The NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the north of the previous one, and lies very close to the multi-model consensus, TVCA. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii were updated based on the ASCAT pass and the NASA Global Hawk dropsonde data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 39.9N 39.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 39.9N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 39.9N 36.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 20/1200Z 40.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 21/0000Z 39.5N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 22/0000Z 36.0N 29.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
