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| #718689 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:09 AM 19.Sep.2014) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014 Satellite images indicate that Edouard has become much less organized during the past several hours. The low-level center is now exposed with no associated deep convection, with the old mid- level circulation decoupled well to the southeast. With the absence of deep convection, Edouard is probably losing strength quickly, so the initial wind speed is lowered to 50 kt, a little higher than the average of the satellite estimates in consideration of the earlier Global Hawk/ASCAT data. Edouard is unlikely to redevelop organized deep convection since it is over 23C water with strong shear. Thus, the storm should continue to weaken and will likely become post-tropical in about 12 hours. Extratropical transition is indicated in a couple of days since most of the global models are now showing the former tropical cyclone developing frontal features by that time. Edouard has slowed down considerably during the past few hours, with initial motion estimate of 090/6 kt. A continued eastward motion is predicted for the next day or so, followed by a turn to the southeast when the cyclone becomes embedded in the flow between the subtropical high and a deep-layer low over the northeast Atlantic Ocean. The latest NHC forecast is blend of the previous NHC prediction and the latest dynamical model consensus, which results in a small westward shift in the 48-72 hour time frame. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 39.8N 38.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 39.7N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 20/0600Z 39.7N 35.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 20/1800Z 39.5N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 21/0600Z 38.5N 31.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0600Z 34.5N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
