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| #7196 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 02.Sep.2004) TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004 ...FRANCES WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...STILL A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE MOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR...NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NORTHERN CAT ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 330 MILES...530 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST. FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR ...AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FRANCES IS STILL A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE WEST SIDE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND...AND ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES. SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...24.5 N... 75.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 948 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER STEWART |
