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| #7222 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:39 AM 03.Sep.2004) TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004 0900Z FRI SEP 03 2004 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 30.7W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS...50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 30.7W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 30.0W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 10.1N 33.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 10.3N 36.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 25SE 25SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 10.6N 39.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 10.9N 42.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 11.6N 49.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 13.0N 55.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 15.0N 61.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 30.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z FORECASTER RHOME/JARVINEN |
