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| #7226 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 AM 03.Sep.2004) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THIS AND THE IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE...T.D. NINE IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM IVAN. IVAN CONTINUES TO MOVE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12. GLOBALS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH IVAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ACCORDINGLY...DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...SAVE NOGAPS WHICH IS SLOWER AND MORE POLEWARD...AND THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND ESSENTIALLY MAINTAINS A CONSISTENT FORWARD SPEED OF 15 TO 17 KNOTS. IVAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME EASTERLY SHEAR AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SITUATED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND IVAN WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY STRENGTHEN IVAN TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY 84 HOURS BUT THIS APPEARS A BIT MUCH GIVEN THE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL NOT TOTALLY DIMINISH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A MORE MODEST STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE. FORECASTER RHOME/JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 10.0N 30.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 10.1N 33.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 10.3N 36.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 10.6N 39.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 10.9N 42.7W 60 KT 72HR VT 06/0600Z 11.6N 49.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 07/0600Z 13.0N 55.2W 80 KT 120HR VT 08/0600Z 15.0N 61.0W 85 KT |
