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| #723301 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:01 PM 10.Oct.2014) TCPAT2 BULLETIN SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 500 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.7N 64.2W ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.2 WEST. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM. WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MAINLY NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY LATE SATURDAY OR ON SUNDAY. RAINFALL...SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF BERMUDA BY SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
