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| #723352 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 10.Oct.2014) TCDAT2 SUBTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1100 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014 The cloud pattern of Fay features an area of deep convection displaced northwest of the low-level center by about 30 kt of southerly shear and a fractured convective band well east of the center. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on the earlier aircraft data. Overall, the cloud pattern looks more tropical than it did a few hours ago, and Fay will likely transition to a tropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours. Given that the shear is expected to continue, only limited intensification is shown in the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by slow weakening until the cyclone is absorbed after 48 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest IVCN multi-model consensus. The initial motion estimate is 345/11, as Fay continues to move around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy, with Fay expected to turn northward in the next 12 to 24 hours and then recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the right of the previous one through 24 hours based on the initial position and motion, and is largely an update of the previous forecast after that time. The NHC forecast is close to the latest dynamical model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 25.9N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 27.7N 64.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 30.8N 64.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 33.9N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 36.6N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 14/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ Forecaster Brennan |
