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| #723539 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:41 PM 11.Oct.2014) TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 800 PM AST SAT OCT 11 2014 ...FAY CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ON BERMUDA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 65.4W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FAY IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PRELIMINARY DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE INVESTIGATING FAY DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA THIS EVENING...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL...FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY FAY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF BERMUDA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
