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| #723677 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 12.Oct.2014) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072014 1100 AM AST SUN OCT 12 2014 The cloud pattern associated with Fay has become more symmetrical, and microwave data also reveal that the inner core structure is better than 12 hours ago, including the presence of a closed mid-level eye feature. I was tempted to classify the system as a hurricane, but the consensus of the Dvorak T-numbers still support an initial intensity of 60 kt. No significant change in strength is anticipated, but only a 5-kt increase in the winds will bring Fay to hurricane status. A strong cold front is rapidly approaching the cyclone, and extratropical transition will most likely occur in about 24 hours. Fay has turned to the right as anticipated, and the best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 21 kt. Fay should accelerate even further and turn more to the east while embedded in the fast mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, and is a blend of the previous forecast and the Ocean Prediction Center input. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 34.0N 62.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 35.5N 59.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 36.0N 52.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/0000Z 36.0N 46.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/1200Z 34.0N 42.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 15/1200Z...absorbed by a front $$ Forecaster Avila |
