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| #723734 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 12.Oct.2014) TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 2100 UTC SUN OCT 12 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * DESIRADE * LES SAINTES * MARIE GALANTE * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * ST. MAARTIN * SABA * ST. EUSTATIUS * BARBUDA * ANTIGUA * ANGUILLA * ST. KITTS * NEVIS * MONTSERRAT * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 59.5W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 59.5W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 59.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.5N 61.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.9N 63.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.9N 65.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.0N 66.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.9N 67.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 22.6N 68.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 24.5N 68.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 59.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
