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| #723737 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 PM 12.Oct.2014) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014 ...GONZALO STRENGTHENING EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 59.5W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE * DESIRADE * LES SAINTES * MARIE GALANTE * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * ST. MAARTIN * SABA * ST. EUSTATIUS * BARBUDA * ANTIGUA * ANGUILLA * ST. KITTS * NEVIS * MONTSERRAT * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES * CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LEEWARD ISLANDS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND APPROACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY MONDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD...AND REACH THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
