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| #723883 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:59 AM 13.Oct.2014) TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 800 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014 ...GONZALO BEGINNING TO MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING ON ANTIGUA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 61.5W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM N OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * ST. MAARTIN * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * BARBUDA * ANTIGUA * ANGUILLA * ST. KITTS AND NEVIS * MONTSERRAT * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GONZALO WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE GUADELOUPE RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE AIRCRAFT IS STILL INVESTIGATING GONZALO...AND IT COULD POSSIBLY FIND STRONGER WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ANTIGUA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY....WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD TODAY. SWELLS WILL REACH THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
