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| #724166 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:00 AM 14.Oct.2014) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 200 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS GONZALO STRONGER... ...EYE PASSING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 64.0W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF ANGUILLA ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF ST. THOMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. MARTIN WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANGUILLA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. MAARTEN * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY * PUERTO RICO * VIEQUES AND CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.0 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL PASS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. RAINFALL...GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/LANDSEA |
