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| #724211 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 14.Oct.2014) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014 ...GONZALO MOVING AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 64.4W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NNE OF ST. THOMAS ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO... VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTEN. THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ANGUILLA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANGUILLA * ST. MARTIN * ST. BARTHELEMY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF GONZALO WILL MOVE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 974 MB...28.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA THIS MORNING. RAINFALL...RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH GONZALO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND...BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO TODAY. SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/LANDSEA |
