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| #724212 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 AM 14.Oct.2014) TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014 Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that Gonzalo has continued to quickly strengthen overnight while the eye has passed just northeast of the British Virgin Islands. The aircraft measured a peak flight-level wind of 116 kt in the northeastern eyewall and SFMR surface winds of 92 kt. A blend of these data yield an initial intensity of 95 kt for this advisory. The SHIPS model and a UW-CIMSS shear analysis show about 15 to 20 kt of south- southwesterly shear over Gonzalo, which may be why the eye has not become apparent in infrared imagery. The shear is forecast to decrease and remain low during the next few days while the hurricane moves over warm water. This should allow for additional strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. Eyewall cycles are likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity after that time. In about 3 days, gradual weakening is predicted to begin as Gonzalo will be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and into an area of increasing southwesterly shear. The updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance, and is a little higher than the previous advisory through 72 hours due to the higher initial intensity. Gonzalo is moving northwestward or 315/11 kt. The hurricane is expected to remain on a northwestward heading during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, Gonzalo should turn northward, then north-northeastward ahead a mid-latitude trough that is forecast to move off the east coast of the United States in 2 to 3 days. Late in the period, the hurricane should accelerate northeastward in deep layer southwesterly flow over the North Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there remains some spread in the forward speed of the hurricane after 72 hours. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is close to the GFEX and TVCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 19.6N 64.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 21.0N 65.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 22.7N 67.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 24.1N 68.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 25.4N 68.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 28.9N 67.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 34.5N 64.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 43.5N 56.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown |
