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| #724564 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 15.Oct.2014) TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1100 AM AST WED OCT 15 2014 ...GONZALO STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 68.0W ABOUT 640 MI...1025 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.0 WEST. GONZALO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION BY LATE THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 130 MPH...215 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...AND ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH GONZALO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB...28.03 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER BERMUDA ON FRIDAY... WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY GONZALO ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE NORTHERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. SWELLS WILL REACH MUCH OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA ON THURSDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI |
